Recent market performance, dubbed the “Trump rally,” has given investors pause over concerns about the market hitting new highs and where it will go from here. As years of investment data supports, attempting to predict the direction of the market over long periods of time with any accuracy is a near impossibility, and one which extraordinarily few have been successful at over the long-term. Warren Buffet recently demonstrated this by his declaration of victory on his 2007 bet that an S&P 500 index fund would beat a pool of hedge funds over the following 10 year period. With one year remaining, the simple index fund gained a cumulative 85% for nine years, while the pool of hedge funds averaged a cumulative gain of 22% over the nine year period.
Since the identity of the hedge funds in the pool have not been publicly released, it is impossible to know what went awry for these actively managed funds. We believe the underlying data will support two issues – the excessive fees charged by hedge funds and their attempt to guess the direction of the market or particular stocks. Hedge funds, by their nature, are designed to hedge against perceived market risks and perils – which are rarely in short supply.
While the U.S. is in the 3rd longest economic expansion in history, it has been a remarkably slow expansion. The economy continues to strengthen, but has been largely dependent on the stimulus provided by the Fed. The more recent market run-up reflects investor expectation on infrastructure spending, deregulation, and tax cuts. Concerns about rising interest rates, tariff wars, and the economic impact of immigration remain at the fringe, for now. Civilian unemployment (seasonally adjusted) is at 4.8% in Jan 2017 down from 10% in Oct 2009 and below the 50 year average of 6.2%. However, wage growth remains stagnant at 2.4% vs. 4.2% for the 50 year average. **
This begs the question, what is an investor to do as the markets reach all-time highs? The simple answer is to remain focused on the long-term and ignore short-term market noise, remain diversified, rebalance the portfolio on a consistent basis to maintain your asset allocation and take advantage of sector underperformance (currently the international developed markets and the emerging markets have lower valuations), and preserve the tax efficiency of the portfolio. Looking at the graph below, imagine the investment return if an individual pulled out of the market every time it hit a new high. They would be out of the market on a fairly continual basis. The markets continue to perform as the global economy grows and business profits increase.
Of course, there is no guarantee we won’t see a correction in the coming year(s). Just a year ago, the markets faltered on concerns about a Chinese hard landing – which still hasn’t come to fruition. But at this point, we aren’t seeing the frothy valuations indicative of insanity. The S&P 500 forward P/E, as of March 1st, is 17.5, roughly 13% above the 100-year-average of 15.
Still, pundits and forecasters, more concerned with attention-grabbing headlines than reasonable commentary, will use the higher valuations to peddle fear of the next market crash. So, let us not soon forget these words of wisdom from Warren Buffet in his 1980 letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc: “forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.”
**Data provided by JP Morgan
Despite a strong lead in the polls for Democratic Presidental nominee Hillary Clinton leading up to November 8th, America has elected Donald J. Trump to be the 45th President of the United States. In many ways, this shock is not unlike Great Britain’s “Brexit” vote to leave the European Union on June 23rd of this year. On that date, according to Ladbrokers, the gambling community was offered 3/1 on a Brexit bet. Yesterday morning, the very same odds were offered on a bet that Donald Trump would win the US election. Just like in June, the odds were beaten.
One questions might be: how will markets react to such shocking news? Early this morning, after hearing the news that Donald Trump won the election, I heard another headline…”US Dow Futures down 700 points!” Some of my friends heard the same headline and shot me a quick email suggesting a market meltdown and asking for my thoughts (as I write, the Dow is up 211 or 1.15%). I wrote back a simple answer: THINK LONG-TERM.
Consider the growth of $1 invested in the S&P 500 through various Republican and Democrat administrations in the chart below. The power of capital markets (capitalism) rewards those that invest for the long-term. Trying to time the market based on the next presidential election, recession or war can be an expensive exercise in futility.
Last Thursday's vote by U.K. citizens to leave the EU has created days of market turmoil, and while it is possible that the vote will impact the U.K. and European economies, the global implications will be years in the making. Almost immediately, backlash erupted against the vote with a new petition, with over 3 million signatures, demanding another vote by the end of last weekend.
The EU, a union of 28 countries, will still include 4 of the world's seven largest developed economies. The referendum itself is not binding, and exit negotiations are expected to drag out 2+ years. There is a strong possibility that Scotland, who was not happy with the vote to leave the EU, will seek independence again.
Currently, the EU receives half of all U.K. exports, and upon departure from the EU, the U.K. will lose its automatic right to the favorable trade terms currently available as a EU member. In addition to trade issues, concerns over future foreign investment in the UK and the impact to London as a worldwide financial hub have reverberated through the markets.
The vote to leave the EU appears to be driven by lingering anxiety from the Great Recession, rebellion against the existing political powers, and a rise of nationalism, all issues which are keenly felt in other countries, including the U.S.
While it is easy to react to the market turmoil created by the passage of the referendum, it is important to remember this is a political event and the financial impact may be much more of a snooze for U.S. investors than the markets are indicating. In the short term, U.S. stocks remain more insulated from the turmoil, and the sell-off has created some enticing values abroad. Prior to yesterday’s market close, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index was fetching 13x 2016 earning as compared to a PE ratio of 17 for the S&P 500, with a dividend yield on the Stoxx averaging 4% - almost double the yield on the S&P 500. This compares to a recent yield of 1.56% on the 10 year U.S. treasury. In our view, this is ample incentive to be patient and remain focused on the long-term.
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